I don’t really have time to do this idea justice right now, but its a concept that I used to obsess over as a child, and think the pieces might now exist to make something that could be really useful to people.
The basic idea: create an datastore of people’s predictions about the future, and surface those people’s track-records as they’re proven correct/incorrect over time.
My sister’s and I used to get into some weird fights. She’d say things like “you’re not going to get into college” and I’d tell her “you’re not going to graduate high school.” Thats a bad example, but there were times (100% of them, actually. She graduated high school, but this is just a contrived example) when I was SO SURE I was going to be right, and SO SURE that she was going to be wrong, that I wanted her punished in some way for believing something so stupid.
I thought about this again today after reading this article. http://www.businessinsider.com/jan-hatzius-very-bad-scenario-2010-10
I saw this and thought “shit”. I bet a lot of other people saw this and actually did something. Maybe they bought bonds, or gold, and in doing so pulled money out of Cameron Tangney Corporation. After all, he’s the head of Goldman Sach’s, he must know. But what if he’s wrong? What if his past predictions, like this one or this one were way off? Wouldn’t that be useful context? (NOTE: He’s pretty good, but I doubt that many others share his record of success)
One of the many things that keeps me far away from politics (not even getting involved, just even paying close attention) is the lack of accountability by the players involved. In fact, it seems to me that some of the most successful in Washington are the ones that can get the most crazy, say the most outlandish things, and drum up the most fear/fervor/pride/excitement - regardless of the claim’s factual basis.
I could be wrong, but I’d like a way to hold people’s feet to the fire by creating a system that makes it easy to record concrete predictions, check those predictions in due time, and come up with a composite score for how closely we should listen to the shepherd next time he says that wolves are circling.
It could work similar to the way hunch does. You’d put “facts” into the system, and a date at which that fact should be checked. It should be as objective as possible (so, politicians claiming that “the world will be a better place if I’m elected” probably wouldn’t be possible to use, but “I will increase employment by 2% in my first term” would). Then either we could put up for vote the conclusion at the future date (of course, some liars will claim they were misinterpreted and have the ‘facts’ to back it up) by the community at large, or the person who entered it and/or moderators could give a “yes”/”no” to that claim.
Over time a person would establish a reputation as either a dead ringer, or a fanciful blowhard, or (I predict for most) a talking coin flip.
The media doesn’t do this well enough for me. And every organization that does seems to be politically biased. FactCheck.org is a start, but its scope is too narrow. I’m interested in ranking CEOs and Professional Coaches, Friends, and just about everybody else.
Something to think about!